Show me a guy who doesn’t mind losing and I will show you a loser. Stu Ungar
Harvest season is in the poker room but I keep shoveling the wheat with a pitch fork.
Don’t challenge strong players. Challenge weak ones. That’s what they are there for. John Vorhaus
Poker is a game that goes on within yourself. Control yourself and you will be a winner.
For many years have I played poker and for many of them some secrets I have guarded closely. When doing the tips of the week, consideration is often given whether the tip that will be given will affect my ability to make money as a professional. The tip this week took me a long time to put into print. I have personally asked Mason Malmuth a friend and player who I respect in high regard to review the numbers when he gets a chance and make corrections. Remember I have done the calculations in rough form and they are coming from my play book.
Well here we go. The tip of the week this week are breakdowns. Have you ever heard of this before. First lets look at the breakdown of hand. We are not just looking at the first two cards here we are looking at the flop. Lets take a look at one breakdown from my play book. Qs 7d 5s that’s the flop. Lets say you hold 7s 6s in the blind and a tight opponent raises from early fairly early position and you have some callers. All the opponents fold to you after the raiser bets on the flop. Well what beats the hand that you have: AA (6 combinations), KK (6 combinations), AQ (16 combinations), KQs (4 combinations), 77 (1 combination), 55 (3 combinations), QQ (3 combinations). A total of 39 combinations that beat your hand out of 1326. That comes out to 2.94 percent. Now lets take a look at another example Js 7d 5s. AA (6 combinations), KK (6 combinations), QQ (6 combinations), JJ (3 combinations), AJs (4 combinations), 77 (1 combination), 55 (3 combinations). A total of 29 out of 1326 that beat your hand. That comes out to 2.18 percent.
Now all you sharpies out there may say that TT to 88 beats you. This is true but we plan to make those hands drop. I plan to do this on the flop or the turn with check raises. On the flop you have the odds to make a check raise. But what are the check raise odds on the turn. Well lets look at the odds. Two players called the raiser plus yourself and half the small blind. This comes out to be 8.5 small bets in the pot. The original player bet and you called a total of 10.5 small Slot Online bets. On the turn the opponent bets so there are now 12.5 small bets or 6.25 big bets on the turn. Now comes your check raise making it 8.25 big bets in the pot. What are the odds to hit the hand any way. Well 9 spades hits your hand as well as any 7 or 6 for a total of 14 outs or 2.28 to one. The cost of the check raise to you is 2 times 2.28 or 4.56. But the pot contains. 8.25 bets in the pot for approximately 4 big bets profit. By the way, he only has you beat 2.94 to begin with anyway. But what do breakdowns do for you anyway. Breakdowns allow you to make plays at opponents with positive expectations. Breakdowns have also given us insight on when to check raise bluff. The time to check raise bluff is when few combinations can be made from the restricted opponents top card. For example Js 7d 5s is more restricted in regards to combinations with a value of 2.18 percent compared to Qs 7d 5s with a value of 2.94 percent. Bluffing should also include these factors. Making plays like these confuse opponents and cause opponents to give you added play on you normal check raises and good hands that you have bet for value and it is all done with a positive expectation.